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Decision-Making Process

Every time that an individual needs to travel in order to conduct an activity, (s)he needs to select and experience a specific activity profile. This choice-making process can take place consciously or sub-consciously, while both cognitive and emotional considerations can influence the final decision.

Cognitive responses

In this model it is assumed that depending on attributes' base utilities and an individual's preferences, a cognitive expected utility value corresponds to every activity profile in the universal choice set of that individual. In case that an activity profile was experienced before, an emotional value is also assigned to it. Thus, some cognitive and some emotional responses correspond to that activity profile and when they are combined, they constitute the overall expected utility value of that activity profile, for this individual, at a specific point of time and under a specific context- condition.

In order to calculate the cognitive part of this overall expected utility value, it is assumed that every activity profile, belonging to the universal choice set of an individual, consists of some dynamic and some static activity attributes. In the context of this model, dynamic attributes are those attributes whose value varies among the various context-conditions. For instance, travel time is considered to be dynamic, for the reason that the state of travel time in an activity profile depends on whether it is a rush or a non-rush hour. In order to calculate the expected utility (from the perspective of the individual) of an activity profile, the partial expected utilities of both the static and the dynamic activity attributes are taken into account. Specifically, the expected utility of an activity profile of activity type k is:

(9.1)

(9.2)

(9.3)

where is the expected partial utility of an activity profile ik for static activity attributes j under state n, are the static attributes, is the individual's preference regarding state n of attribute j and equals to 1 if state n ofthe attribute j is contained in the activity profile, otherwise equals to 0.

is the expected partial utility of activity profile, with respect to the dynamic attributes under states under context ct and time t,are the dynamic attributes,is the individual's preference regarding dynamic attribute j with state n, is the conditional, time-varying probability distribution across various states of dynamic attribute at time /. Individuals' beliefs regarding the state of the dynamic attributes, under specific context c, are updated with Bayesian principles and the decision tree induction method (Arentze & Timmermans, 2003). Specifically, individuals do not make decisions based on the actual states of dynamic activity attributes, but rather on their current beliefs about these activity attributes.

 
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