Key Message to Policy Makers
• Loss of large scale of tropical forest will bring more and intensify extreme weather/climate events.
• Loss of forest in Indonesia 1990–2013 accounts for most of deforestation in Southeast Asia with average loss of about 0.822 Mha per year.
• From the period 2010–2050, Indonesia potentially can reduce its defores-
tation rate more than half of the current rate to 0.337 Mha per year.
• The potential reduction of the deforestation may be achieved by facilitating changes in technologies without necessity of direct forest protection.
• Implementation of innovative financing policies and incentive/disincentive system may further reduce emission from REDD+ activities.
• The payment from REDD+ activities might offset the government additional expenses incurred in facilitating the changes.
Forest plays a significant role in regulating our climate. Regional climates were sensitive to change of types and density of vegetation (Dickinson and HendersonSellers 1988; Shukla et al. 1990; Dale 1997; Avisar and Werth 2005). Loss of forest cover in large scale directly alters the reflectance of the earth's surface, induces local warming or cooling, and finally changes air pressure distribution. The changes in air pressure distribution shift the typical global circulation patterns and change rainfall distribution. At present, deforestation of tropical regions continues at high rate (Houghton et al. 2012). The major impact of tropical deforestation on precipitation may occur in and near the deforested regions themselves. However, a strong impact will be propagated by teleconnections along the equatorial regions and to mid-latitudes and even high latitudes even though not as strong as in the low latitude. Based on climate modeling analysis, deforestation of tropical regions (Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia) significantly affects precipitation at midand high latitudes through hydrometeorological teleconnections (Avisar and Werth 2005). Without significant change in forest protection efforts, the loss of forests in these three regions by 2050 will reach about 29, 98, and 44 %, respectively (Schmitz et al. 2014).
Deforestation will also contribute to the increase of GHG emission to the atmosphere. In the long term, the increasing GHG concentration in the atmosphere will cause an increase in global temperature and global climate. New finding from the 5th AR of IPCC indicated that agriculture, forest, and other land uses represent 20–24 % of global emission. Without mitigation efforts, the contribution of this sector may increase to 30 % by 2030. The three tropical regions, South America (TSAm), Southeast Asia (SEA), and tropical Africa (Af), are the main contributors to the global emission from land use change and forestry (Fig. 9.1). In the last 50 years, the rate of the emission from this sector tended to increase, except in South America (Houghton et al. 2012), and it is the largest and most variable single contributor to the emission from land use change (Le Quere et al. 2013). It is clear that deforestation in the short term will affect the regional climate and in the long term enhances global warming causing the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events.
Among Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia has the largest forest area. Rate of deforestation fluctuates from year to year; however, in general it tended to increase. GHG emission from land use change and forest (LUCF) has been found to be the major contributor to the total national emission. It accounted for about 60 % of the total national emission, much higher than energy sector (MoE 2010). Efforts for reducing national emission have been prioritized on this sector (Bappenas 2010). Potential of reducing emission from REDD+ activities, i.e., reducing deforestation and forest degradation, maintaining role of forest conservation, implementing
Fig. 9.1 CO2 emission from land use change and forest (globalcarbonatlas.org)
sustainable forest management, and enhancing forest carbon sequestration, is quite big. Potentially the LUCF sector can become net sink by 2030 (MoE 2010). However, a number of innovative policies are required to realize this.