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China’s Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast





A Review of China's Economy in 2014Economic Growth Continued to Fall, but the Proportion of the Tertiary Industry Continued to ImproveFixed Asset Investment Growth Fell Sharply, but the Investment Structure Started to ImproveThe Industrial Profit Growth Declined Sharply, and Eliminating Backward Production Capacity Achieved Certain ProgressImport and Export Growth Fell Sharply, but the Trade Structure Continued to ImproveResident Real Income Growth was SlowingPrice Index Continued the Trend of “Double Down,” and the Structural Deflation was IncreasingThe Monetary Policy Targeted Eased, and Financing Costs Remained HighFiscal Revenue Growth Was Falling, but the Fiscal Expenditure Structure Continued to ImproveForecast of China's Economy During 2015–2016Assumptions of Exogenous VariablesEconomic Growth Rates of the USA and the EurozoneMajor Exchange RatesThe Growth Rate of Broad Money Supply (M2)Forecasts of China's Major Macroeconomic Indicators for 2015–2016Forecast of GDP GrowthForecasts of Major Price IndicesForecasts of Growth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic IndicatorsExport, Import, and Reserve GrowthThe Growth Rate of Total Fixed CapitalThe Growth Rate of ConsumptionPolicy SimulationsBackground Analysis of Policy SimulationsScenario Design of Policy SimulationsThe Result of Policy SimulationsThe Simulation Result of Scenario 1The Simulation Results of Scenario 2Policy Implications and SuggestionsComments and DiscussionProfessor Liu Shucheng, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Ideal Path and Growth Potential of the “New Normal”Professor Gao Peiyong, President of Strategic Finance Academy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:Professor Zhang Yansheng, General SecretaryProfessor Wang Luolin, Ad Hoc Consultant and Former Executive Vice President of the Chinese AcademyYang Ruilong, Professor of School of Economics, Renmin University of China: Emphasizing the Bottom-Line Management While Facing New Challenges UnderJia Kang, President of China Academy of New SupplySide Economics and Professor of Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Ministry of Finance: The ReformJia Yandong, Researcher and Deputy DirectorA Report of the Questionnaire Survey on the Macroeconomic Situation and Policy of China in 2015Appendix
 
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