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A short course of lectures
«China’s Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast»





Price Index Continued the Trend of “Double Down,” and the Structural Deflation was IncreasingForecasts of Growth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic IndicatorsThe Growth Rate of Broad Money Supply (M2)Fiscal Revenue Growth Was Falling, but the Fiscal Expenditure Structure Continued to ImproveForecasts of China's Major Macroeconomic Indicators for 2015–2016Resident Real Income Growth was SlowingAssumptions of Exogenous VariablesScenario Design of Policy SimulationsJia Yandong, Researcher and Deputy DirectorProfessor Liu Shucheng, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Ideal Path and Growth Potential of the “New Normal”Professor Wang Luolin, Ad Hoc Consultant and Former Executive Vice President of the Chinese AcademyForecast of China's Economy During 2015–2016The Simulation Results of Scenario 2The Result of Policy SimulationsThe Industrial Profit Growth Declined Sharply, and Eliminating Backward Production Capacity Achieved Certain ProgressPolicy Implications and SuggestionsPolicy SimulationsImport and Export Growth Fell Sharply, but the Trade Structure Continued to ImproveForecast of GDP GrowthEconomic Growth Rates of the USA and the EurozoneThe Growth Rate of Total Fixed CapitalProfessor Zhang Yansheng, General SecretaryMajor Exchange RatesA Review of China's Economy in 2014Background Analysis of Policy SimulationsEconomic Growth Continued to Fall, but the Proportion of the Tertiary Industry Continued to ImproveProfessor Gao Peiyong, President of Strategic Finance Academy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:A Report of the Questionnaire Survey on the Macroeconomic Situation and Policy of China in 2015The Growth Rate of ConsumptionFixed Asset Investment Growth Fell Sharply, but the Investment Structure Started to ImproveYang Ruilong, Professor of School of Economics, Renmin University of China: Emphasizing the Bottom-Line Management While Facing New Challenges UnderExport, Import, and Reserve GrowthAppendixThe Monetary Policy Targeted Eased, and Financing Costs Remained HighForecasts of Major Price IndicesComments and DiscussionThe Simulation Result of Scenario 1Jia Kang, President of China Academy of New SupplySide Economics and Professor of Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Ministry of Finance: The Reform
 
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