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Behavioural Economics and Terrorism: Law Enforcement and Patterns of Behaviour
Preface
Blindfold chess and terrorism
Bounded rationality
Heuristics and biases
Behavioural economics
Applications to counter-terrorism
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Patterns of reason and unreasonableness
Example #1: the Unabomber
Example #2: the Red Army Faction
Example #3: take me to the April sun in Cuba
Decision theory and the ‘criminological turn’
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Bounded by rationality
Limited resources: the budget constraint
US embassy attacks and mass casualty bombings
The willingness to exchange terrorism for legitimate activity
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Loss aversion and the terrorist identity
Loss of a terrorist identity
Identity and substitution
Identity, loss aversion and patterns of terrorist choice
Bargaining with a loss averse decision-maker
Identity loss aversion and unwillingness to disengage
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Prospect theory as a descriptive theory of terrorist choice
The basics of prospect theory
Editing (or framing) risky prospects
The evaluation phase
Patterns of terrorist choice and copycats
Sam Melville and the mad bomber
From single attack methods to combinations
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
The hidden side of attack method combinations and international terrorism
How diversification creates higher rewards with lower risk
MPT: a decision rule consistent with diversification
Mean-variance utility: patterns of choice
International terrorism, international diversification
Behavioural portfolio theory
BPT-SA
BPT-MA
Using BPT and MPT together
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Cycles in terrorism and evolutionary stability
‘Share’ and survival
Fitness and risk preference
Brutality, life cycle and contest
Resolving the problem of cycles
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Overconfidence, gender differences and terrorist choice
Too much terrorism
Triggers for overconfidence
The advantages of overconfidence versus the costs of being found out
Female-perpetrated terrorism and overconfidence
Notes on romance, female agency and terrorism
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Expected utility as a measurement tool in the terrorism context
Measuring the Jackal’s utility
The measurement of expected utility
Allowing measurements to be impacted by ‘biases’
Dynamic measurements in the face of innovations
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Decision-making with more than one reference point
The reference point concept: from single to multiple
Multiple reference points in an investigative context
A note on slack
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
A guide to the terrorism studies conversation
The record of scholarly conversation
Accessing the conversation at the right point
Using Google Scholar and decision-making biases
Loss aversion, slack and search
Four dot points to end the chapter
Note
References
Information cascades and the prioritisation of suspects
Decision-making biases and investigations
The deep roots of cognitive biases: the case of confirmation
Information cascades
Fragile cascades and dissemination of intelligence
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Everyday decision-making
Everyday decisions, everyday decision-makers
Evolving, interconnected reference points
Predictive policing
Predictive counter-terrorism
Four dot points to end the chapter
Notes
References
Reason, strategy and discovery
The mainstream of the alternative
Regret
Fear and hope
Don’t forget the orthodoxy
Ideas to take away
Notes
References
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