Behavioural Economics and Terrorism: Law Enforcement and Patterns of Behaviour - Behavioural Economics and Terrorism: Law Enforcement and Patterns of Behaviour -

Preface Blindfold chess and terrorism Bounded rationality Heuristics and biases Behavioural economics Applications to counter-terrorism Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Patterns of reason and unreasonableness Example #1: the Unabomber Example #2: the Red Army Faction Example #3: take me to the April sun in Cuba Decision theory and the ‘criminological turn’Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Bounded by rationality Limited resources: the budget constraint US embassy attacks and mass casualty bombings The willingness to exchange terrorism for legitimate activity Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Loss aversion and the terrorist identity Loss of a terrorist identity Identity and substitution Identity, loss aversion and patterns of terrorist choice Bargaining with a loss averse decision-maker Identity loss aversion and unwillingness to disengage Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Prospect theory as a descriptive theory of terrorist choice The basics of prospect theory Editing (or framing) risky prospects The evaluation phase Patterns of terrorist choice and copycats Sam Melville and the mad bomber From single attack methods to combinations Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References The hidden side of attack method combinations and international terrorism How diversification creates higher rewards with lower risk MPT: a decision rule consistent with diversification Mean-variance utility: patterns of choice International terrorism, international diversification Behavioural portfolio theory BPT-SA BPT-MA Using BPT and MPT together Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Cycles in terrorism and evolutionary stability ‘Share’ and survival Fitness and risk preference Brutality, life cycle and contest Resolving the problem of cycles Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Overconfidence, gender differences and terrorist choice Too much terrorism Triggers for overconfidence The advantages of overconfidence versus the costs of being found out Female-perpetrated terrorism and overconfidence Notes on romance, female agency and terrorism Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Expected utility as a measurement tool in the terrorism context Measuring the Jackal’s utility The measurement of expected utility Allowing measurements to be impacted by ‘biases’Dynamic measurements in the face of innovations Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Decision-making with more than one reference point The reference point concept: from single to multiple Multiple reference points in an investigative context A note on slack Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References A guide to the terrorism studies conversation The record of scholarly conversation Accessing the conversation at the right point Using Google Scholar and decision-making biases Loss aversion, slack and search Four dot points to end the chapter Note References Information cascades and the prioritisation of suspects Decision-making biases and investigations The deep roots of cognitive biases: the case of confirmation Information cascades Fragile cascades and dissemination of intelligence Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Everyday decision-making Everyday decisions, everyday decision-makers Evolving, interconnected reference points Predictive policing Predictive counter-terrorism Four dot points to end the chapter Notes References Reason, strategy and discovery The mainstream of the alternative Regret Fear and hope Don’t forget the orthodoxy Ideas to take away Notes References