Home Sociology Understanding Society and Natural Resources
In this vision of the future of science:
• One's discipline will be noted much as one's place of birth is noted today – where one started on life's journey, but not what totally defines one's life.
• Science research and education will balance analysis and synthesis to produce not just data, but knowledge and even wisdom. This will enable vastly improved links with social decision-making.
• The limits of predictability of complex, adaptive, living systems will be recognized, and a “pragmatic modeling” philosophy of science will be adopted. This will allow new, adaptive approaches to environmental management and better links with social decision-making.
• A multiscale approach to understanding, modeling, and managing complex, adaptive, living systems will be the norm, and methods for transferring knowledge across scales will be vastly improved.
• A consistent theory of biological and cultural co-evolution will evolve and increase understanding of humans' place in nature and the possibilities of designing a sustainable and desirable human presence in the biosphere.
• Envisioning and goal setting will be recognized as critical parts of both science and social decision-making. We will create a shared vision of a desirable and sustainable future, and implement adaptive management systems at multiple scales in order to get us there.
Addicott, J. F., Aho, J. M., Antolin, M. F., Padilla, D. K., Richardson, J. S., & Soluk, D. K. (1987).
Ecological neighborhoods: Scaling environmental patterns. Oikos, 49, 340–346.
Adesida, O., & Oteh, A. (1998). Envisioning the future of Nigeria. Futures, 30, 569–572. Allen, T. F. H., & Starr, T. B. (1982). Hierarchy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Arrow, K. (1962). The economic implications of learning by doing. Review of Economic Studies., 29, 155–173.
Arthur, W. B. (1988). Self-reinforcing mechanisms in economics. In P. W. Anderson, K. J. Arrow,
& D. Pines (Eds.), The economy as an evolving complex system (pp. 9–31). Redwood City: Addison-Wesley.
Bartel, S. M., Cale, W. G., O'Neill, R. V., & Gardner, R. H. (1988). Aggregation error: Research objectives and relevant model structure. Ecological Modelling, 41, 157–168.
Berkes, F., & Folke, C. (1994). Investing in cultural capital for sustainable use of natural capital. In A.
M. Jansson, M. Hammer, C. Folke, & R. Costanza (Eds.), Investing in natural capital: The ecological economics approach to sustainability (pp. 128–149). Washington, DC: Island press, 504 pp.
Bossel, H. (1996). 20/20 vision: Explorations of sustainable futures. Kassel: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel.
Boulding, K. E. (1981). Evolutionary economics. Beverly Hills: Sage.
Cale, W. G., O'Neill, R. V., & Gardner, R. H. (1983). Aggregation error in nonlinear ecological models. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 100, 539–550.
Callenbach, E. (1975). Ecotopia. New York: Bantam.
Carpenter, S. R., & Kitchell, J. F. (Eds.). (1993). The trophic cascade in lakes. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press. 385 pp.
Colwell, R. K. (1974). Predictability, constancy, and contingency of periodic phenomena. Ecology, 55, 1148–1153.
Costanza, R. (1987). Social traps and environmental policy. BioScience, 37, 407–412. Costanza, R. (1989). What is ecological economics? Ecological Economics, 1, 1–7.
Costanza, R. (2000). Visions of alternative (unpredictable) futures and their use in policy analysis.
Conservation Ecology, 4(1), 5. [online] URL: consecol.org/vol4/iss1/art5 Costanza, R., & Maxwell, T. (1994). Resolution and predictability: An approach to the scaling
problem. Landscape Ecology, 9, 47–57.
Day, R. H. (1989). Dynamical systems, adaptation and economic evolution (MRG Working Paper No. M8908). Los Angeles: University of Southern California.
Day, R. H., & Groves, T. (Eds.). (1975). Adaptive economic models. New York: Academic.
Delcourt, H. R., Delcourt, P. A., & Webb, T. (1983). Dynamic plant ecology: The spectrum of vegetation change in space and time. Quaternary Science Reviews, 1, 153–175.
Ehleringer, J. R., & Field, C. B. (Eds.). (1993). Scaling physiological processes: Leaf to globe.
New York: Academic, 388 pp.
Eriksson, K.-E. (1991). Physical foundations of ecological economics. In L. O. Hansson & B. Jungen (Eds.), Human responsibility and global change (pp. 186–196). Göteborg: University of Göteborg Press.
Gallopin, G. C. (1989). Global impoverishment, sustainable development and the environment: A conceptual approach. International Social Science Journal., 121, 375–397.
Gardner, R. H., Cale, W. G., & O'Neill, R. V. (1982). Robust analysis of aggregation error. Ecology, 63(6), 1771–1779.
Garrett, M. J. (1993). A way through the maze: What futurists do and how they do it. Futures, 25, 254–274.
Gibson, C., Ostrom, E., & Ahn, T. (2000). The concept of scale and the human dimensions of global change: A survey. Ecological Economics, 32(2), 217–239.
Grigg, N. (1995). Case method for teaching water-resources management. Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education and Practice, 121, 30–36.
Günther, F., & Folke, C. (1993). Characteristics of nested living systems. Journal of Biological Systems, 1(3), 257–274.
Hirata, H., & Ulanowicz, R. E. (1985). Informational theoretical analysis of the aggregation and hierarchical structure of ecological networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 116, 321–341.
Holland, J. H., & Miller, J. H. (1991). Artificial adaptive agents in economic theory. American Economic Review., 81, 365–370.
Holling, C. S. (1987). Simplifying the complex: The paradigms of ecological function and structure. European Journal of Operational Research, 30, 139–146.
Ijiri, Y. (1971). Fundamental queries in aggregation theory. JASA, 66, 766–782.
Jarvis, P. G., & McNaughton, K. G. (1986). Stomatal control of transpiration: Scaling up from leaf to region. Advances in Ecological Research, 15, 1–49.
Kaitala, V., & Pohjola, M. (1988). Optimal recovery of a shared resource stock: A differential game model with efficient memory equilibria. Natural Resource Modeling, 3, 91–119.
Kauffman, S. A., & Johnson, S. (1991). Coevolution to the edge of chaos: Coupled fi landscapes, poised states, and coevolutionary avalanches. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 149, 467–505.
Kay, J. J. (1991). A nonequilibrium thermodynamic framework for discussing ecosystem integrity. Environmental Management, 15, 483–495.
Kouzes, J. M., & Posner, B. Z. (1996). Envisioning your future: Imagining ideal scenarios. The Futurist, 30, 14–19.
Lindgren, K. (1991). Evolutionary phenomena in simple dynamics. In C. G. Langton, C. Taylor,
J. D. Farmer, & S. Rasmussen (Eds.), Artificial life (SFI studies in the sciences of complexity, Vol. X, pp. 295–312). Boston: Addison-Wesley.
Lines, M. (1990). Stochastic stability considerations: A nonlinear example. International Review of Economics and Business, 37, 219–233.
Livingston, R. J. (1987). Field sampling in estuaries: The relationship of scale to variability. Estuaries, 10, 194–207.
Mandelbrot, B. B. (1977). Fractals. Form, chance and dimension. San Francisco: Freeman. Mandelbrot, B. B. (1983). The fractal geometry of nature. San Francisco: Freeman.
Maxwell, T., & Costanza, R. (1993). An approach to modeling the dynamics of evolutionary self organization. Ecological Modeling, 69, 149–161.
McCoy, R. (1994). The best of Deming. Knoxville: SPC Press.
Meadows, D. (1996). Envisioning a sustainable world. In R. Costanza, O. Segura, & J. MartinezAlier (Eds.), Getting down to earth: Practical applications of ecological economics (pp. 117–126). Washington, DC: Island Press.
Meentemeyer, V., & Box, E. O. (1987). Scale effects in landscape studies. In M. G. Turner (Ed.), Landscape heterogeneity and disturbance (pp. 15–34). New York: Springer.
Nagpal, T., & Foltz, C. (Eds.). (1995). Choosing our future: Visions of a sustainable world. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
Nicolis, G., & Prigogine, I. (1977). Selforganization in non-equilibrium systems. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 491 pp.
Nicolis, G., & Prigogine, I. (1989). Exploring complexity. New York: W. H. Freeman, 313 pp.
O'Neill, R. V., DeAngelis, D. L., Waide, J. B., & Allen, T. F. H. (1986). A hierarchical concept of ecosystems. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
O'Neill, R. V., Johnson, A. R., & King, A. W. (1989). A hierarchical framework for the analysis of scale. Landscape Ecology, 3, 193–205.
Prigogine, I. (1972). Thermodynamics of evolution. Physics Today, 23, 23–28. Quinn, D. (1992). Ishmael. New York: Bantam/Turner, 266 pp.
Rastetter, E. B., King, A. W., Cosby, B. J., Hornberger, G. M., O'Neill, R. V., & Hobbie, J. E. (1992). Aggregating fine-scale ecological knowledge to model coarser-scale attributes of ecosystems. Ecological Applications, 2, 55–70.
Razak, V. M. (1996). From the canvas to the field: Envisioning the future of culture. Futures, 28, 645–649.
Robinson, J. B. (1991). Modelling the interactions between human and natural systems. International Social Science Journal, 130, 629–647.
Rosser, J. B. (1991). From catastrophe to chaos: A general theory of economic discontinuities. Amsterdam: Kluwer.
Rosser, J. B. (1992). The dialogue between the economic and ecologic theories of evolution. Jour. of Economic Behavior and Organization, 17, 195–215.
Rosswall, R., Woodmansee, R. G., & Risser, P. G. (1988). Scales and global change: Spatial and temporal variability in biospheric and geospheric processes. New York: Wiley. 355 pp.
Salthe, S. N. (1985). Evolving hierarchical systems: Their structure and representation. New York: Columbia University Press.
Schneider, E. D., & Kay, J. J. (1994). Life as a manifestation of the second law of thermodynamics. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 19, 25–48.
Schumpeter, J. (1954). History of economic analysis. London: Allen & Unwin, 1260 pp.
Scott, W., & Oulton, C. (1999). Environmental education: Arguing the case for multiple approaches. Educational Studies, 25, 89–97.
Slaughter, R. A. (1993). Futures concepts. Futurist., 25, 289–314.
Steyn, D. G., Oke, T. R., Hay, J. E., & Knox, J. L. (1981). On scales in meteorology and climatology. Climatological Bulletin, 39, 1–8.
Thiel, H. (1967). Economics and information theory. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Troncale, L. R. (1985). On the possibility of empirical refinement of general systems isomorphies. Proceedings of the Society for General Systems Research, 1, 7–13.
Turner, M. G., Costanza, R., & Sklar, F. H. (1989). Methods to compare spatial patterns for landscape modeling and analysis. Ecological Modelling., 48, 1–18.
Vitousek, P., Ehrlich, P. R., Ehrlich, A. H., & Matson, P. A. (1986). Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis. BioScience, 36, 368–373.
Weisbord, M. (Ed.). (1992). Discovering common ground. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 442 pp.
Weisbord, M., & Janoff, S. (1995). Future search: An action guide to finding common ground in organizations and communities. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.
Wheeler, K., & Lewis, L. (1997). School-community links for environmental health: Case studies from GREEN. Health Education Research, 12(4), 469–472.
Williams, N. (1997). Biologists cut reductionist approach down to size. Science, 277, 476–477. Wilson, E. O. (1998). Consilience: The unity of knowledge. New York: Knopf, 332 pp.
|< Prev||CONTENTS||Next >|