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Earthquakes in the Early Modern Era

1. Daiki Yamamoto, “Sea Serpents' Arrival Puzzling, or Portentous?” Japan Times, March 6, 2010.

2. “Ika no toresugi wa daijishin no zenchō? Tokushima de 4-bai mo,” Yomiuri Online, May 1, 2011.

3. Kashima Tarō [pseudonym], Kashima no kami to Suwa no kami: Higashi Nihon dai shinsai no fukkō ni mukete (Kashima-shi, Japan: Kashima jingū shamusho), 2011.

4. “Shinkaigyo, Shizuoka-ken de aitsugi shutsugen . . . daijishin no maebure?” in Yomiuri shinbun, June 9, 2012.

5. Yoshimura Akira, Sanriku kaigan ōtsunami (Bungei shunjū, 2004), 16–20,

81–82.

6. “City Looks to Base Tsunami Warnings on Animal Behavior,” Japan Times, June 3, 2012; “Japanese City to Watch Animal Behaviour for Disaster Signs,” Tokyo Times, 2012.

7. For a critique of the idea of characteristic earthquakes (koyū jishin), see

Robert Geller (Robaato Geraa), Nihonjin wa shiranai “Jishin yochi” no shōtai (Fatabasha, 2011), 159–165, and Yan. Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, and Robert J. Geller, “Characteristic Earthquake Model, 1884–2011, R.I.P.,” in Seismological Research Letters 83 (November/December 2012), 951–953.

8. Shinsai yobō chōsakai, eds., Dai-Nihon jishin shiryō (hereafter DNJS), vol. 2

(otsu), esp. 564–585, and Suzuki Tōzō and Koike Shōtarō, eds., Fujiokaya nikki (hereafter FN), esp. 513. These versions of Honchō jishin no shidai are slightly different, but both claim seismic activity as the creative force for Lake Biwa and Mt. Fuji.

9. “Kainai jishinroku,” in Tōkyō daigaku jishin kenkyūjo, ed., Shinshū Nihon jishin shiryō (hereafter NJS), vol. 5, supplement 2, part 1, 503–506.

10. 120 million yen would be about 1.5 million U.S. dollars in July 2012. The catfish project produced no useful results. For more details, see Geller, Jishin yochi, 120–135.

11. For a typical example, see Motoji Ikeya, Earthquakes and Animals: From Folk Legends to Science (River Edge, NJ: World Scientific, 2004). Ikeya's main argument is that electromagnetic fields are earthquake precursors and that

a variety of animals can detect them. One caption in the front matter reads, “Nails about to drop from a magnet on introduction of an electric field,

195
reproducing an event known to have occurred two hours before the Ansei Edo Earthquake in 1855” (vi). As we will see, however, there is no evidence that such an event actually took place.

12. Regarding the Oakland firestorm of 1991, which wiped out thousands of affluent homes, some flatlanders expressed the view that excessive

consumption invited divine retribution. “Those people in the hills deserved to be wiped out. It was God acting,” said one interviewee. Susanna M. Hoffman, “The Monster and the Mother: The Symbolism of Disaster,” in Susanna M. Hoffman and Anthony Oliver-Smith, eds., Catastrophe and

Culture: The Anthropology of Disaster (Santa Fe, NM: School of American

Research Press, 2002), 132.

13. Chen Fu, Nongshu (Taibei: Taiwan shangwu yinshuguan, 1956), vol. 1, 10–12.

14. Anna A. Akasoy, “Interpreting Earthquakes in Medieval Islamic Texts,” in Christof Mauch and Christian Pfister, eds., Natural Disasters, Cultural

Responses: Case Studies toward a Global Environmental History (New York:

Lexington Books, 2009), 190–192.

15. Akasoy, “Medieval Islamic Texts,” 189–190.

16. Gregory Quenet, “Earthquakes in Early Modern France: From the Old Regime to the Birth of New Risk,” in Andrea Janku, Gerrit Schenk, and Franz Mauelshagen, eds., Historical Disasters in Context: Science, Religion, and Politics (New York: Routledge, 2012), 100–103.

17. Elaine Fulton, “Acts of God: The Confessionalization of Disaster in Reformation Europe,” in Andrea Janku, Gerrit Schenk, and Franz Mauelshagen, eds., Historical Disasters in Context: Science, Religion, and Politics (New York: Routledge, 2012), 62, 66.

18. Quenet, “Early Modern France,” 103–105.

19. Ibid., 98. 20. Ibid., 109.

21. Quenet, “Early Modern France,” 107–109, and Benjamin Reilly, Disaster and

Human History: Case Studies in Nature, Society, and Catastrophe (Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company, 2009), 78–79.

22. Quoted in Quenet, “Early Modern France,” 109–110.

23. Christof Mauch, “Introduction,” in Christof Mauch and Christian Pfister, eds., Natural Disasters, Cultural Responses: Case Studies toward a Global Environmental History (New York: Lexington Books, 2009), 4.

24. Mauch, “Introduction,” 9.

25. Anthony Oliver-Smith, “Theorizing Disasters: Nature, Power, and Culture,” in Susanna Hoffman and Anthony Oliver-Smith, eds., Catastrophe and Culture: The Anthropology of Disaster (Santa Fe: School of American Research Press, 2002), 27–28.

26. Ibid., 30. 27. Perhaps the most influential such work was Wadatsumi Kiyoshi, Zenchō shōgen 1519: Hanshin-Awaji daishinsai 1995 nen 1 gatsu 17 nichi gozen 5 ji 46 fun (Tōkyō shuppan, 1996).

28. For a critical assessment of modern fears of a Tōkai or Nankai earthquake, see Geller, Jishin yochi, 10–11, 92–98. According to Geller, mentioning the four characters “Tōkai earthquake” functions as “a magic mallet” (uchide no kozuchi) that produces budget allocations. The Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami renewed fears of Tōkai and Nankai earthquakes. To take

one example from popular media, see “Massive Tsunami Projected: Panel Forecasts Nankai Trough Quakes Could Affect 11 Prefectures,” Daily Yomiuri Online, April 2, 2012.

29. Okada Yoshimitsu, Saishin Nihon no jishin chizu (Tōkyō shoseki, 2006), 139–143, and Sangawa Akira, Jishin no Nihonshi: Daichi wa nani o kataru ka (Chūōkōron shinsha, 2007), 34–36. Nankai Trough earthquakes took place in 684, 887, 1009, 1361, 1605, 1854, and 1946. These earthquakes have

often occurred in close temporal proximity to ocean trench earthquakes originating in the Sagami Trough off the Izu Peninsula, which are known as Tōkai earthquakes. They occurred in 1096, 1498, 1605, 1707, 1854, and 1944. For more details on Tōkai and Nankai earthquakes, see Tsuji Yoshinobu, “Ansei tōkai, nankai jishin no jitsuzō to senjin no saigai kyōkun,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1854 Ansei tōkai jishin, Ansei nankai jishin hōkokusho (Chūō bōsai kaigi, 2005), 4–5, and Noguchi Takehiko, Ansai Edo jishin: Saigai to seiji kenryoku (Chikuma shobō, 1997), 22.

30. Itō Kazuaki, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi (Iwanami shoten, 2002), 184; Okada, Jishin chizu, 144; and Usami Tatsuo, Nihon higai jishin sōran [416]–2001, saishin-ban (Tōkyō daigaku shuppankai, 2003), 52.

31. Okada, Jishin chizu, 144, Itō; Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 182, 184; and Usami, Higai jishin, 51–52. For reports on damage to the castle, see DNJS, vol. 1 (kō), 157–158, 191. For the specific figures of seventy-three ladies-in-waiting and five hundred maids killed, see pages 202–203.

32. Okada, Jishin chizu, 145; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 185; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 121–123, 125; Usami, Higai jishin, 57–58; and Kitahara Itoko, “Saigai to jōhō,” in Kitahara Itoko, ed., Nihon saigaishi (Yoshikawa kōbunkan, 2006), 232. For a detailed analysis of the damage from this earthquake, see Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1662 Kanbun Ōmi-Wakasa jishin hōkokusho (Mizuho jōhō sōken kabushikigaisha, 2005). For extensive diary and other accounts of the earthquake and its damage, see DNJS, vol. 1 (kō), 246–255. Regarding the buried villages, see page 251 (entry “Rakuho

zatsudan ichigenshū”).

33. Okada, Jishin chizu, 86–87; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 80–91; Sangawa,

Jishin no Nihonshi, 134–137; and Usami, Higai jishin, 65–70. For diaries,
official chronicles, and other accounts of the earthquake and its damage, see

DNJS, vol. 1 (kō), 281–307.

34. Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 136. For a detailed account of damage to daimyō and hatamoto mansions, see “Kanrosō,” in DNJS, vol. 1 (kō), 290.

35. Okada, Jishin chizu, 169–170; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 138–141; Itō,

Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 81; and Usami, Higai jishin, 75–90.

36. Okada, Jishin chizu, 56; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 158–162; Usami, Higai jishin, 130–131; and Hashomoto Manpei, Jishingaku no kotohajime: kaituakusha Sekiya Seikei no shōgai (Asahi shinbunsha, 1983), 40.

37. “Chōshin hiroku, jōkan,” in Usami Tatsuo, ed., “Nihon no rekishi jishin shiryō” shūi (hereafter NRJSS), vol. 3, 211.

38. Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 162; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 187–190;

Usami, Higai jishin, 131–132; and Miki Haruo, Kyōto daijishin (Shibunkaku shuppan, 1979), 4–48, 115–250. Miki argues that an accurate count of the dead is impossible. See also DNJS, vol. 1 (kō), 533–589.

39. Musha kinkichi, Jishin namazu (Meiseki shoten, 1995, originally 1957), 55.

40. For an extended discussion of the causes and other seismological details, see Tsukahara Hiroaki, “Zenkōji jishin wa dono yō nishite hasseishita ka,” in Akahane Sadayuki and Kitahara Itoko, eds., Zenkōji jishin ni manabu (Nagano-shi, Japan: Shinano mainichi shinbunsha, 2003), 35–47.

41. Okada, Jishin chizu, 118–119; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 128–142; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 164–170; Kitahara, “Saigai to jōhō,” 246–246; Usami, Higai jishin, 137–144; and Shinano mainichi shinbunsha kaihstsukyoku shuppanbu, ed., Kōka yonen Zenkōji daijishin (Nagano-shi:

Shinano mainichi shinbunsha, 1977), 111–204. For documentation of the changing condition of the Sai River and other rivers, see “Shinetsu jishinki,” 9, 11–12; “Fujikawa Kan zakki,” 46–47; “Kamahara Dōzan jishin kiji,” 71–78,

92–93; “Kenshūroku,” 105–107, 109–111, 114–115, 120–127; “Nogizono

zakki,” 131, 138–139; “Tokutake-shi jishin kiji,” 154–156; “Eikan zasshi,”

256–266, 268–269; “Jishin kiji,” 269–270; “Chisai satsuyō,” 271–272; “Shinshū

jishinki,” 276–277, 282–283; “Shinano Daijishinki,” 287–288, 301–307; and “Sinkōkan,” 307–316, all in DNJS, vol. 2 (otsu). Especially useful is Usami's diagram of the flooding (zu 248-3, Higai jishin, 142).

42. “Tokutake-shi jishin kiji,” in DNJS, vol. 2 (otsu), 156.

43. For an authoritative study of the death and destruction, see Akabane Sadayuki and Inoue Kimio, “Saigai no jōkyō,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1847 Zenkōji jishin hōkokusho (Nihon shisutemu kaihatsu kenkyūsho, 2007), 22–42. See also page 222. Other detailed accounts of the destruction include Shinano mainichi shinbunsha kaihstsukyoku shuppanbu, ed., Zenkōji daijishin, 73–108, and “Akahane Sadayuki, 'Zenkōji jishin to saigai no zenbō,'” in Akahane and Kitahara, Zenkōji jishin, 9–34. 44. “Koizumi Sōken nichiroku,” in NRJSS, vol. 2, 227.

45. “Odawara hanshi Hoshimi bō-shokan,” in DNJS, vol. 2 (otsu), 327.

46. Nishimaki Kōzaburō, ed. Kawaraban shinbun: Edo, Meiji sanbyaku jiken, vol. 1 (Heibonsha, 1978), 140–141; and Inagaki Fumio, ed., Edo no taihen, ten no kan (Heibonsha, 1995), 58. To view this print, see gazo.dl.itc

.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ishimoto/1/01–021/00001.jpg.

47. Usami, Higai jishin, 146–148, and Ishibashi Katsuhiko, Daijishinran no jidai

(Iwanami shoten, 1994), 8–13.

48. “Jishin kaishō seisetsuroku,” in DNJS, vol. 2 (otsu), 358, 359.

49. Okada, Jishin chizu, 146; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 171–172; Usami, Higai jishin, 148–151; and “Wakisaka Antaku nikki” and “Ōsaka jishinki,” in DNJS, vol. 2 (otsu), 330–333, 340–344.

50. Tsuji, “Ansei tōkai, nankai jishin,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1854 Ansei tōkai jishin, Ansei nankai jishin hōkokusho, 2. See also Nishiyama Shōjin, “Ansei nankai jishin ni okeru Ōsaka de no shinsai taiō,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1854 Ansei tōkai jishin, 51, 55–59, 62.

51. Okada, Jishin chizu, 119–120; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 91–96; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 173; and Tsuji, “Ansei tōkai, nankai jishin,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1854 Ansei tōkai jishin, 1–2. See also page 132.

52. Okada, Jishin chizu, 119; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 99–100; Sangawa, Jishin no Nihonshi, 180–181; Usami, Higai jishin, 151–168; and Tsuji, “Ansei tōkai, nankai jishin” and Kitahara Itoko, “Ansei tōkai, nankai jishin no higai jōhō ni tsuite: kawaraban o chūshin ni,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1854 Ansei tōkai jishin, 84–85.

53. Ishibashi, Daijishinran, 25–26.

54. For a detailed table of JMA seismic intensity scale levels, along with important qualifying points, see Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1855 Ansei Edo jishin hōkokusho, 32–39. See also page 2.

55. For a comprehensive summary of the earthquake, see Usami, Higai jishin, 171–182. There are dozens of excellent modern studies of damage patterns, a topic I revisit later. An overall summary in text and in charts is Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1855 Ansei Edo jishin hōkokusho, 1–11, 25–30 (including charts 1-1 through 1-6). For a systematic collection of all relevant documents and materials, see Sayama Mamoru, Ansei Edo jishin saigaishi (hereafter SGS).

56. For a tabular summary of these nine documents, see Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1855

Ansei Edo jishin hōkokusho, Table 1-2, 23–24. Only one document permits even a rough estimate of a specific number. For further discussion of focal depth, see Okada Yoshimitsu, Saishin Nihon no jishin chizu (Tōkyō shoseki, 2006), 87; Sangawa Akira, Jishin no Nihonshi: daichi was nani o kataru ka (Chūōkōron shinsha, 2007), 191; and Nakamura Misao, Kayano Ichirō, and Matsuura Ritsuko, “Ansei Edo jishin no shubuken de no higai” Rekishi
jishin,
19 (2003), 32–33, 36. Nakamura et al. estimate a focal depth of 35–70 kilometers, and many other estimates are within this range. For a detailed seismological discussion of the focal depth of the Ansei Edo earthquake that summarizes many competing theories and approaches, see William H. Bakun, “Magnitude and Location of Historical Earthquakes in Japan and Implications for the 1855 Ansei Edo Earthquake,” Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110, B02304 (2005), 12–22.

57. Okada, Jishin chizu, 121–122; Usami, Higai jishin, 207–211; and Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1891 Nōbi jishin hōkokusho, Nihon shisutemu kaihatsu kenkyūsho, 2008, esp. 209.

58. Okada Jishin chizu (Tōkyō shoseki, 2006), 52.

59. For an account of modern Tōhoku tsunamigenic earthquakes, see Gregory Smits, “Danger in the Lowground: Historical Context for the March 11, 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami,” in Asia-Pacific Journal 9, issue 20, no. 4 (May 16, 2011).

60. Itō Kazuaki, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi (Iwanami shoten, 2002), 106–107.

61. For a comprehensive survey of the geology and damage from this earthquake, see Usami, Higai jishin, 219–230.

62. Koshimura Shun'ichi and Shutō Nobuo, “Meiji Sanriku jishin tsunami,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1896 Meiji Sanriku jishin tsunami hōkokusho, 2005, 15–17.

63. Koshimura and Shutō, “Meiji Sanriku jishin tsunami,” 15, 17–20.

64. Okada, Jishin chizu, 88–91; Usami, Higai jishin, 272–278; and Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1923 Kantō daishinsai hōkokusho, dai ippen (Nihon shisutemu kaihatsu kenkyūsho, 2006), esp. 238.

65. Okada, Jishin chizu, p. 59; Itō, Jishin to funka no Nihonshi, 117; and Usami, Higai jishin, 302–306. For photos of Ryōri Bay before and after the 1933 tsunami, see protea.dbms.cs.gunma-u.ac.jp/TSUNAMI/tsunami_data/ IwateShowaShinsai_kawamoto/image/IwateShowaShinsai_00024.jpg.

66. Luke S. Roberts, Performing the Great Peace: Political Space and Open Secrets in Tokugawa Japan (Honolulu: University of Hawai'i Press, 2012), esp. 43–52.

67. Mark Ravina, Land and Lordship in Early Modern Japan (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999).

68. “Chōshin hiroku, jōkan,” in NRJSS, vol. 3, 212.

69. “Eikan zasshi,” in DNJS, vol. 2 (otsu), 248–249.

70. Regarding the history of the concept of shinkoku, see Satō Hiroo, Shinkoku Nihon (Chikuma shinsho 591) (Chikuma shobō, 2006) and Kitai Toshio, Shinkokuron no keifu (Hōzōkan, 2006).

71. Regarding the significance of Shinano's complex geopolitical circumstances, see Kären Wigen, A Malleable Map: Geographies of Restoration in Central Japan, 1600–1912 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2010). 72. On this topic, see Mary Elizabeth Berry, Japan in Print: Information and Nation in the Early Modern Period (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2006).

73. Buyō Inshi, Seji kenmonroku, Honjō Eijirō, ed. (Seiabō, 2001, originally 1816).

74. For a thorough discussion of this matter, see David L. Howell, Geographies of Identity in Nineteenth-Century Japan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005), esp. pages 45–78.

75. Fujita Rihei, Edo kanoko, Asakura Haruhiko, ed. (Sumiya shobō, 1970, originally 1687), 250–290. See also Jurgis Elisonas, “Notorious Places: A Brief Excursion into the Narrative Topography of Early Edo,” in James L. McClain, John W. Merriman, and Ugawa Kaoru, eds., Edo and Paris: Urban Life and the State in the Early Modern Era (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1994),

284–285; and Berry, Japan in Print, 163. See also pages 156–157.

76. Print #90 in Miyata Nobori and Takada Mamoru, eds., Namazue: Shinsai to Nihon bunka (Ribun shuppan, 1995), 225, 299–300. To view this print, see gazo.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ishimoto/2/02–043/00001.jpg.

77. For a discussion of the importance of free circulation in Tokugawa economic thought, see Mark Metzler and Gregory Smits, “Introduction: The Autonomy of Market Activity and the Emergence of Keizai Thought,” in Bettina Gramlich-Oka and Gregory Smits, eds., Economic Thought in Early

Modern Japan (Leiden: Brill, 2010), esp. 12–17. Many of the articles in this

volume also discuss the prominence of free circulation as a desirable social and economic situation. See also “Ansei itsubō jishin kibun,” in NJS, vol. 5, supplement 2, part 1, 460 for thoughts on those who hinder the circulation of gold and silver in society.

78. For a trenchant analysis of these matters, see Hayashi, Reiko, “Provisioning Edo in the Early Eighteenth Century: The Pricing Policies of the Shogunate and the Crisis of 1733,” in James L. McClain, John W. Merriman, and Ugawa Kaoru, eds. Edo and Paris: Urban Life and the State in the Early Modern Era (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press), 1994, 211–233.

79. Takeuchi Makoto, “Festivals and Fights: The Law and the People of Edo,” in McClain, Merriman, and Ugawa, Edo and Paris, 404.

80. Peter Kornicki, The Book in Japan: A Cultural History from the Beginning to

the Nineteenth Century (Leiden: Brill, 1998), 350.

81. Katō Takashi, “Governing Edo,” in McClain, Merriman, and Ugawa, Edo and Paris, 53.

82. For a study of litigiousness in a rural area, see Herman Ooms, Tokugawa Village Practice: Class, Status, Power, Law (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996).

83. Takeuchi, “Festivals and Fights,” 384. 84. Sasaki Junnosuke, Yonaoshi (Iwanami shoten, 1979), 12–15.

85. Herbert P. Bix, Peasant Protest in Japan, 1590–1884 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1986), 145.

86. Asai Ryōi, Kaname'ishi (1662), in Taniwaki Masachika, Oka Masahiko, and Inoue Kazuhito, eds. and trans., Kanazōshishū (Shōgakkan, 1999), 15. For an 1830 example, see DNJS, vol. 1 (), 567. See also Kitani, Namazue no shinkō, 41, and Nishiyama Akihito, “Kyōto de no higai to jishin taiō,” in Chūō bōsai kaigi, 1662 Kanbun Ōmi-Wakasa jishin, 141.

87. “Daijishin rokka nukigaki kyōka,” in NRJSS, vol. 3, 288.

88. Kitahara Itoko, Jishin no shakaishi: Ansei daijishin to minshū (Kōdansha, 2000), 98–99, and Noguchi, Ansei Edo jishin, 201–202.

89. Kitahara Itoko, “Saigai to kawaraban: Sono rekishiteki tenkai,” in Kinoshita Naoyuki and Yoshimi Shunya, eds., Nyūsu no tanjō: Kawaraban to shinbun nishikie no jōhōsekai (Tōkyō daigaku sōgō kenkyū hakubutsukan, 1999), 25–26.

90. Kornicki, The Book in Japan, 335. 91. Ibid., 351.

92. Berry, Japan in Print, 107–111.

93. Shimizu Isao, Edo no manga (Kōdansha, 2003), 131–132.

94. Richard Rubinger, Popular Literacy in Early Modern Japan (Honolulu: University of Hawai'i Press, 2007), 160.

95. Kornicki, The Book in Japan, 275–276.

96. Henry D. Smith II, “The History of the Book in Edo and Paris,” in McClain, Merriman, and Ugawa, Edo and Paris, 336, 348. See also Gerald Groemer, “Singing the News: Yomiuri in Japan during the Edo and Meiji Periods,” Harvard Journal of Asiatic Studies 54, no. 1 (June 1994): 233–261.

97. See Satō, Shinkoku Nihon, and Kitai, Shinkokuron for thorough discussions of

this topic.

98. Noguchi, Ansei Edo jishin, 195–196.

99. The major study of this phenomenon is Miyata Noboru, Kinsei no hayarigami

(Hyōronsha, 1972).

100. As examples, see the prints Manzairaku mi no yōjin (Joyous self-precaution),

#69 in Miyata and Takada, Namazue, 285–286 (to view this print, see gazo.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ishimoto/2/02-047/00001.jpg; Namazu kakejiku (Catfish hanging scroll), #129 in Miyata and Takada, Namazue, 222, 320 (to view this print, see dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/1302032); and Jishin myōsaku kudokusan (The wondrous efficacy of the earthquake's blessing),

#196 in Miyata and Takada, Namazue, 357 (to view this print, see gazo

.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ishimoto/2/02–039/00001.jpg).

Sarah E. Thompson, for example, states, “There was also the possibility for implied criticism of the government in the reporting of current events,
especially given the ancient notion, imported from China, that a truly virtuous regime would be so completely uneventful that even natural disasters would not occur. The suppression of news reporting may have been due in part to a desire to suggest this ideal condition.” “The Politics of Japanese Prints,” in Sarah E. Thompson and H. D. Harootunian, Undercurrents of the Floating World: Censorship and Japanese Prints (New York: Asia Society Galleries, 1991), 34.

101. Earthquake-induced era name changes were Tengyō (938), Ten'en (973), Jōgen (976), Eichō (1096), Bunji (1185), Keichō (1596), Tenpō (1830), and Ansei (1854). See Yamamoto Takeo, “Shiryō ginmi no hitsuyōsei,” in

Hagiwara Takahiro et al., Kojishin: rekishi shiryō to katsu-dansō kara saguru

(Tōkyō daigaku shuppankai, 1982), 46. To Yamamoto's list we could add Hōei (1704), owing to the December 31, 1703, Genroku earthquake.

102. Quoted in Harold Bolitho, “The Tempō Crisis,” in Marius B. Jansen, ed., The Cambridge History of Japan, vol. 5, The Nineteenth Century (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989), 117.

103. Noguchi, Ansei Edo jishin, 39.

104. See Tahara Tsugio, ed., Yamaga Sokō, Nihon no meicho 12 (Chūō kōronsha, 1983), 139; Miura Baien, Zeigo, in Yamada Keiji, ed., trans. Miura Baien, Nihon no meicho 20 (Chūō kōronsha, 1984), 482–483; and (regarding Motoori Norinaga) Tahara Tsugio and Morimoto Jun'ichirō, eds., Yamaga Sokō, Nihon shisō taikei 32 (Iwanami shoten, 1970), 334, 542–543.

105. Groemer, “Singing the News,” 245.

106. “Jishin no ben” in the print Shokoku daijishin, figure 19 in Kitahara, “Saigai to Kawaraban,” 31. For the web version, see um.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ publish_db/1999news/02/20203.html (accessed January 20, 2012).

107. Most mainstream seismologists regard earthquake prediction in the narrow sense of specifying location, specifi time, and magnitude as impossible. Nevertheless, there is no shortage of publications claiming, in retrospect, that some past major earthquake could have been predicted if we had only been better attuned to nature's signals. Of the seven chapters in a book inspired by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, one argues that statistical analysis proves there are nonrandom components to the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes. The other six chapters posit specifi precursors: the gravitational pull of the sun at certain times of the year; earthquake vapor and clouds; sunspot cycles; abnormally high temperatures combined with astro-tidal triggering; star storms; and sunspots. Although wrapped in a veneer of modern science, the basic explanation for all of these alleged precursors would have made sense to educated early modern Japanese. See Saumitra Mukherjee, ed., Earthquake Prediction (Leiden: Brill, 2006). 108. Jelle Zeilinga de Boer and Donald Theodore Sanders, Earthquakes in Human History: The Far-Reaching Effects of Seismic Disruptions (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005), 172–173.

109. Hidemi Shiga, “The Catfish Underground: Japan's Earthquake Folklore and Popular Responses to Disaster,” Orientations Magazine for Collectors and Connoisseurs of Asian Art (April 2006), 77.

110. Tsuji Yoshinobu, Zukai, Naze okoru? Itsu okoru? Jishin no mekanizumu

(Nagaoka shoten, 2010), 206.

111. Gregory Clancey, Earthquake Nation: The Cultural Politics of Japanese Seismicity, 1868–1930 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2006), 216. I should point out that more recently Clancey has characterized the earthquake catfish as a metaphor, not a literal belief (e.g., presentation given at the symposium “Thinking through Disasters: Japanese Earthquakes Past and Present,” Columbia University, April 6, 2012).

112. Musha, Jishin namazu, 12–22.

113. “Sagami no kuni ōjishin,” in Inagaki Fumio, ed., Edo no taihen, ten no kan (Heibonsha, 1995), 58. See also Nishimaki Kōzaburō, ed., Kawaraban

shinbun: Edo, Meiji sanbyaku jiken, vol. 1 (Heibonsha, 1978), 140–141, and “Saigai to kawaraban: Sono rekishiteki tenkai,” in Kinoshita and Yoshimi, Nyūsu no tanjō, 32–33. To view this print, see gazo.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ ishimoto/1/01–021/00001.jpg.

114. Print #84 in Miyata and Takada, Namazue, 297. To view this print see dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/1302131.

115. Tomisawa Tatsuzō, “'Namazue no sekai' to minzoku ishiki,” Nihon minzokugaku, no. 207 (1996), 102.

116. Print #18 in Miyata and Takada, eds. Namazue, 248. To view this image, see gazo.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ishimoto/1/01–043/00001.jpg.

117. Kojiruien (Dictionary of Historical Terms) Database (Kyoto: Nichibunken, International Research Center for Japanese Studies, 2007), 1356–1357,

in “Chibu,” entry “Jishin,” nichibun.ac.jp/graphicversion/ dbase/kojirui_e.html (accessed December 21, 2011). See also Hashimoto, Jishingaku, 19.

118. Quoted in Hashimoto, Jishingaku, 20.

 
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