Home Accounting Corporate Valuation and Takeover: Exercises

## Exercise 3.3: Growth Estimates and the Cut-Off RateThe derivation of variables that comprise the Gordon model under conditions of certainty based on Equation (17) is not problematical. With explained in Chapter Two, which simply discounts the next dividend (D1) at a constant dividend valuation model equity capitalisation rate (Ke) using the current yield.constant If growth is price of a share by capitalizing next year's dividend at the amount by which the shareholders' desired rate of return exceeds (g) the ex-div annual rate of growth in dividends. This growth rate (g = r.b)) is constant to the multiplication of a equivalent return (r) on new projects financed by a constant retention rate (b).constant Subject to the mathematical proviso that Ke> g, it follows that if Then shareholder wealth, measured by So far so good, but if management finance future projects by retaining profits and shareholders wish to incorporate this data into their analysis of corporate performance in their quest for wealth, how do they calculate the growth rate? In the real world, dividend-retention policies are rarely constant. Even if they are uniform, management and those to whom they are ultimately responsible still need annual growth estimators. A simple solution favored by the investment community, even if the future is uncertain, is to assume that the past and future are Consider the following data available from the published accounts for the Adele company. Year Dividend per Share 2008 20.00 2009 22.00 2010 24.20 2011 26.62 2012 29.28
1. Using a mathematical growth formulae of your choice, calculate the company's of gestimator 2. Use your answer to derive the forecast dividend for 2013 and assuming the company's shares are currently trading at $268.40
1. The Annual Growth Rate Using the formula (Dt - Dt 1)/Dt 1 or alternatively (Dt - Dt 1) -1, we can determine
2008-9 (22.00/20.00) -1 = 0.1 2009-10 (24.20/22.00) -1 = 0.1 2010-11 (26.62/24.20) -1 = 0.1 2011-12 (29.28/26.62) -1 = 0J_ Total 0.4 The of g, is therefore given by the sum of annual growth rates divided by the number of observations.estimator g = 0.4 / 4 = 10% Alternatively, we can calculate dividend growth by solving for g in the following equation and rearranging terms. 2. The Forecast Dividend and Yield Using the previous data and the appropriate equations: The forecast dividend per share for 2013 should be $29.28 (1.1) = $32.21 If Adele's shares are currently priced at $268.40 and dividends are expected to grow at ten per cent per annum beyond 2013, the current yield is 22 per cent. This is derived by solving for Ke in the Gordon Growth model as follows: Rearranging terms: ## Summary and ConclusionsOur Exercises have focused on the inter-relationships between dividend policy, the behaviour of the dividend yield and the price of a company's shares in the presence of growth financed by retentions. They illustrate why Myron J. Gordon believed that movements in share price relate to: 1. Corporate investment policy, rather than dividend policy under conditions of certainty. 2. Dividend policy, rather than corporate investment policy, under conditions of uncertainty. According to his "bird in the hand" hypothesis, the policy objective for an all-equity firm in a real world of uncertainty is Maximise the dividend payout ratio and you minimise the equity capitalisation rate (yield) which maximises share price and hence shareholder wealth. But as we explained in The reasons for which, we shall now analyse in Chapter Fourinconclusive. ## Selected References1. Fisher, I., 2. Gordon, M. J., 3. Hill, R.A., |

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