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Metapopulation Capacity

Gathering distribution estimates is difficult for rare or elusive species, and gathering population data more so, often because of the inaccessibility of their habitat which in turn biases ecological studies around the world (Martin et al. 2012). Population viability analysis can predict species trends, but such modelling also requires a certain level of life history data (Brook et al. 2000) that is unavailable for the full spectrum of species of concern. We have quality landscape data, but we want to know how this affects the species that reside in such landscapes.

Once such tactic is looking at metapopulation capacity (λM), calculated from spatial input (i.e. patch areas and distances) of spatially explicit metapopulation models. We can consider metapopulation theory as a compromise between landscape ecology and species distribution modelling (Hanski 1998). The resulting value is the capacity of a landscape to support long-term species persistence (Hanski and Ovaskainen 2000). λM is one way of assessing risk for species living in fragmented landscapes, as a relative quantification of fragmentation. Schnell and coworkers (2013a) further developed a modification of λM for large-scale landscapes. Species' habitats fragment over time, often due to human land use changes, and eventually the animals grow increasingly endangered. When isolated populations are too small and isolated, the metapopulation as a whole goes extinct. Therefore, λM can be useful in prioritising species conservation from a spatial standpoint (Hanski and Simberloff 1997; Hanski and Ovaskainen 2002; Schnell et al. 2013b). In the realm of conserving evolutionary history we can argue in much the same way, so combining the λM and ED could help us to prioritise and plan conservation areas in a spatially explicit manner, by factoring in the underlying processes of fragmentation, while balancing the objective of conserving evolutionary history.

We can even calculate λM at the patch level, allowing us to target specific areas within a species distribution for conservation prioritization (Ovaskainen and Hanski 2003). Since the spatial aspects would influence upon the evolutionary history of animals, we study this by quantifying isolation and size of patches (or islands). Relatedly, metapopulation theory itself was founded on such spatial assumptions of island biogeography (MacArthur and Wilson 1967).

Island Biogeography

Current global databases often lack the spatial and ecological granularity necessary to conduct such a large-scale analysis, without requiring great effort in obtaining and polishing the data. However, one way that we can at least test this proposed conservation prioritisation method is by examining islands, which we do here on mammals.

In this chapter, we use λM in combination with the current prioritization scheme of EDGE for two purposes. First, we investigate whether phylogenetic diversity cor-relates with characteristics of islands. We expect, based on the principles of island theory that predict lower immigration and emigration rates, that with increasing remoteness and decreasing size, species could accumulate evolutionary history. Second, we prioritise important islands containing an over proportional amount of evolutionary distinct species, indicating a potentially increased risk of living on small remote islands, requiring special attention. IUCN spatial data on species geographic ranges are typically somewhat general and broad, owing to the scope of species assessed. By incorporating more accurate, updated distribution data, we are vastly improving our collective understanding as to how threatened a particular species really is. We want to measure biodiversity value with readily available data and tools to identify conservation priority sites in a heavily fragmented landscape.

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