China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2016
China Economic Performance in the First Half of 2016Structural Transformation Persisted and the Labor Market Stayed RobustTotal Investment Growth Edged Down While Private Investment Growth Dropped DramaticallyConsumption Growth Remained Steady Despite Household Income Growth DeceleratedForeign Trade Growth Remained SluggishThe CPI Sustained Stable While the Decline in PPI SlowedBank Credit Rose Rapidly While the Gap Between Ml and M2 Growth WidenedFiscal Revenues Saw Fast Growth and Fiscal Expenditures Expanded DramaticallyQuarterly Forecast for 2016-17Assumptions on Exogenous VariablesGrowth. Rates of the United States and the Euro AreaThe Exchange RatesGrowth Rate of the Broad Money Supply (M2)Quarterly Forecast for China Major Macroeconomic Indicators in 2016-17GDP Growth. RatesMajor Prices IndicesGrowth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic IndicatorsGrowth Rates of Exports, Imports, and Foreign Exchange ReservesGrowth Rates of Investment in Fixed AssetsGrowth Rates of ConsumptionPolicy Simulation: Macroeconomic Effects of Slowdown in Private Investment GrowthBackgroundFurther ResearchPolicy SimulationModel Specification AdjustmentSimulation Scenarios PlanningSimulation ResultsResults of Comparing Scenario 1 with BaselineResults of Comparing Scenario 2 with BaselinePolicy Implications and Suggestions
