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Temperature Increase

The medium and high scenarios are similar in the early to midterm years, with the higher scenario ending up with a higher average temperature increase by 2090, accompanied by a rise in the number of hot days and warm nights and a decline in cooler weather (Table 17.1).

Rainfall Increase

The projected average annual rainfall is projected to increase (and across the wet and dry seasons), with droughts projected to become less frequent (PCCSP 2011b). However, extreme rainfall days are expected to occur more often (Table 17.2).

Sea Level Rise

The sea level is expected to continue to rise in Kiribati, with seasonal fluctuations, resulting in increases in storm surges and coastal flooding (Table 17.3).

Table 17.1 Projected annual average temperature increase (in °C) for the Gilbert Islands (PCCSP 2011a)

Scenarios:

  • 1990
  • (baseline)
  • 2015
  • (calculated)
  • 2030
  • (projected)
  • 2045
  • (calculated)
  • 2055
  • (projected)
  • 2090
  • (projected)

Low (B1)

0

0.4

0.7

i.i

1.3

1.7

Medium (A1B)

0

0.4

0.8

1.3

1.6

2.6

High (A2)

0

0.4

0.8

1.3

1.6

3.0

Table 17.2 Projected average rainfall increase (as percentage change) for the Gilbert Islands (PCCSP 2011a)

Scenarios:

  • 1990
  • (baseline)
  • 2015
  • (calculated)
  • 2030
  • (projected)
  • 2045
  • (calculated)
  • 2055
  • (projected)
  • 2090
  • (projected)

Annual:

Low (B1)

0

9

14

18

20

25

Medium (A1B)

0

8

12

19

23

37

High (A2)

0

4

7

17

23

42

Wet season:

Low (B1)

0

6

10

12

14

19

Medium (A1B)

0

6

10

15

18

30

High (A2)

0

3

5

13

18

30

Dry season:

Low (B1)

0

11

18

24

28

34

Medium (A1B)

0

9

15

24

30

50

High (A2)

0

8

12

23

31

57

Table 17.3 Projected annual average sea level increase (in m) for the Gilbert Islands (PCCSP 2011a)

Scenarios:

  • 1990
  • (baseline)
  • 2015
  • (calculated)
  • 2030
  • (projected)
  • 2045
  • (calculated)
  • 2055
  • (projected)
  • 2090
  • (projected)

Low (B1)

0

0.06

0.09

0.16

0.17

0.31

Medium (A1B)

0

0.06

0.09

0.17

0.20

0.38

High (A2)

0

0.06

0.09

0.17

0.19

0.39

 
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