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Case Study Analysis: The Age-Related Macular Degeneration Trial

In the ARMD study, the efficacy of interferon-a to treat age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) was evaluated in a multi-trial setting (for details, see

Section 2.2.1). The true endpoint is the change in visual acuity 52 weeks after the start of the treatment and the candidate surrogate endpoint is the change in visual acuity after 24 weeks. Center is used as the trial-level unit of analysis. The results of the case study are discussed without reference to the software tools that can be used to conduct the analyses. In Section 13.2.2 it is detailed how the analyses can be conducted in R.

The analysis showed that njlind = 0.5339, with 95% confidence interval [0.4315; 0.6292]. It can thus be concluded that the amount of uncertainty in T = visual acuity after 52 weeks that is removed when the value of S = visual acuity after 24 weeks becomes known is moderate. This conclusion is in line with the results of the meta-analytic analysis (see Section 4.6).

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