Home Health Case Studies in Maintenance and Reliability: A Wealth of Best Practices
Mathematical modeling of new projects improves their Return on Investment.
It helps eliminate surplus equipment and associated maintenance costs over the plant life.
It allows what-if scenario development at relatively low cost.
We should have done the modeling work much earlier, at the conceptual stage of the project. This would have identified the advantage of having two gas turbine and three steam turbine generators at a stage where commitments for the GTs had not already been made. A further capital cost saving of up to US $10 million was thus not realized.
It turned out that the power requirement was grossly overestimated at the conceptual stage of the project. With a better estimate, we could have eliminated one HRSG-GT combination without having to order a third steam turbine generator, with further capital and operating cost reductions.
Modeling can be used in the operating phase as well, especially when operating contexts change during the life of the plant. Sensitivity analysis (what- if scenarios) offers a powerful way to estimate the outcome of changes in maintenance policy, resource levels, shutdown intervals or durations, and equipment replacement decisions.
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