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A short course of lectures
«The future of mobility»





Appendix B List of ExpertsOverleveraging Sparked a Financial CrisisScenario 1: The Great ResetIncome Inequality and Labor-Force ParticipationConstraints on Car Ownership and DrivingProduce Scenario NarrativesImplications for Transportation PolicyGeographic Distribution of PopulationIncome DistributionDomestic Vehicle ProductionScenario 2: Slowing but GrowingThe ScenariosUse of Transit and Nonmotorized Modes Remains StrongOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadDebt Comes DueOverviewScenario 2: Slowing b ut GrowingOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadEconomic GrowthEnvironmental Problems Remain Incompletely AddressedReforms Shift Growth from Government to Businesses and HouseholdsThe Wild-Card ScenarioCommon ProjectionsThe Market for New-Energy Vehicles and Telematics GrewFour The ScenariosThe RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology ProgramElicit Projections on DescriptorsWhy the Scenarios MatterUtility of the Wild-Card ScenarioStep 6: Create Wild-Card ScenarioGeographic Distribution and UrbanizationSlowing but GrowingCar Manufacturing and Ownership Grow but Not RapidlyNew-Energy Vehicles and Vehicle Technologies Still Hold PromiseEnergy Prices Remain LevelGreenhouse-Gas Emission ControlsAutomobility Without OwnershipKey DriversConstraints on Driving and Vehicle OwnershipTransportation Supply and Constraint TrendsAdoption of Alternatively Fueled VehiclesDetermining Opportunities, Risks, and ContingenciesEnergy Use Is Growing, but SlowlyCreate a Wild-Card ScenarioFlat-Lining Demand for Transportation Affects Some Modes More Than OthersDraw Consequences for Future MobilityCommute Distance and Household TypeCreating the ScenariosPublic Transit, Interurban Rail, and Domestic AirEconomic TrendsStep 3: Integrate into Scenario FrameworksAppendix A MethodologyUrbanizationThe Institute for Mobility ResearchThree Key Drivers and Common ProjectionsAlong with Transit and Nonmotorized TravelTotal PopulationOil Price and ConsumptionEnvironmental Improvements Help Reinforce the Government's LegitimacyLong-Distance Travel Shows Slow, Steady Growth ...Constraints on Driving and on Vehicle OwnershipImplications for DecisionmakersOverviewEnvironmental ConditionsReport OrganizationDomestic Vehicle Industry and Transportation Infrastructure InvestmentsPopulation and Internal Migration Continued to SlowStep 4: Produce Scenario NarrativesIntegrate into Scenario FrameworksAcknowledgmentsTwo Past Trends in Influencing AreasEconomic Growth and Regional Economic SharesScenario 1: The Great ResetImplications for Transportation DecisionmakingReform Remains DifficultDemand for Long-Distance Travel Continues to SoarBackground to All ScenariosForewordA Financial Crisis Sparks Economic SlowdownEconomic GrowthCar Manufacturing Expands and Ownership RisesEnergy TrendsStep 2: Elicit Projections on DescriptorsStep 5: Draw Consequences for Future MobilityStep 1: Select Influencing AreasSelect Influencing AreasIdentifying Leading IndicatorsEnvironmental ConditionsEnvironmental Problems FesterThe Population Barely Grows, but Urbanization ContinuesConstraints on Driving and Vehicle Ownership Spread WidelyPrefaceSix Implications of the ScenariosParking, Taxis and Car-Sharing, and Nonmotorized InfrastructureGrowth Is SlowFive Wild-Card ScenarioDemographic Trends
 
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