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A short course of lectures
«The future of mobility»





Slowing but GrowingConstraints on Car Ownership and DrivingEconomic TrendsCommute Distance and Household TypeDetermining Opportunities, Risks, and ContingenciesFive Wild-Card ScenarioImplications for Transportation DecisionmakingScenario 1: The Great ResetProduce Scenario NarrativesEnvironmental Problems Remain Incompletely AddressedKey DriversStep 5: Draw Consequences for Future MobilityThe Wild-Card ScenarioIntegrate into Scenario FrameworksGeographic Distribution and UrbanizationElicit Projections on DescriptorsFlat-Lining Demand for Transportation Affects Some Modes More Than OthersEconomic GrowthWhy the Scenarios MatterCommon ProjectionsEconomic GrowthSelect Influencing AreasDebt Comes DueIncome Inequality and Labor-Force ParticipationTotal PopulationGeographic Distribution of PopulationEnvironmental ConditionsAcknowledgmentsAppendix A MethodologyThe ScenariosReforms Shift Growth from Government to Businesses and HouseholdsA Financial Crisis Sparks Economic SlowdownConstraints on Driving and on Vehicle OwnershipScenario 2: Slowing b ut GrowingStep 2: Elicit Projections on DescriptorsGreenhouse-Gas Emission ControlsDomestic Vehicle Industry and Transportation Infrastructure InvestmentsPopulation and Internal Migration Continued to SlowUrbanizationStep 1: Select Influencing AreasEconomic Growth and Regional Economic SharesAutomobility Without OwnershipCar Manufacturing and Ownership Grow but Not RapidlyGrowth Is SlowStep 4: Produce Scenario NarrativesLong-Distance Travel Shows Slow, Steady Growth ...Overleveraging Sparked a Financial CrisisForewordReport OrganizationDemographic TrendsCreate a Wild-Card ScenarioEnvironmental ConditionsStep 3: Integrate into Scenario FrameworksOil Price and ConsumptionParking, Taxis and Car-Sharing, and Nonmotorized InfrastructureEnergy TrendsThe RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology ProgramThree Key Drivers and Common ProjectionsOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadSix Implications of the ScenariosAdoption of Alternatively Fueled VehiclesThe Institute for Mobility ResearchThe Population Barely Grows, but Urbanization ContinuesAppendix B List of ExpertsDomestic Vehicle ProductionIdentifying Leading IndicatorsConstraints on Driving and Vehicle Ownership Spread WidelyDraw Consequences for Future MobilityAlong with Transit and Nonmotorized TravelUse of Transit and Nonmotorized Modes Remains StrongCar Manufacturing Expands and Ownership RisesOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadTwo Past Trends in Influencing AreasBackground to All ScenariosEnergy Prices Remain LevelEnvironmental Problems FesterOverviewPublic Transit, Interurban Rail, and Domestic AirEnvironmental Improvements Help Reinforce the Government's LegitimacyFour The ScenariosImplications for Transportation PolicyOverviewCreating the ScenariosUtility of the Wild-Card ScenarioStep 6: Create Wild-Card ScenarioPrefaceDemand for Long-Distance Travel Continues to SoarScenario 2: Slowing but GrowingImplications for DecisionmakersNew-Energy Vehicles and Vehicle Technologies Still Hold PromiseReform Remains DifficultEnergy Use Is Growing, but SlowlyConstraints on Driving and Vehicle OwnershipTransportation Supply and Constraint TrendsScenario 1: The Great ResetIncome DistributionThe Market for New-Energy Vehicles and Telematics Grew
 
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