Desktop version

Home arrow Sociology arrow The future of mobility

Three Key Drivers and Common Projections

The two scenarios outline different possible paths to explain how mobility might develop in China through 2030. In this chapter, we highlight two important items that helped shape the scenarios: key drivers and common projections. Key drivers are those developments that cause major shifts in how the future unfolds and ultimately distinguish between the two scenarios. Other projections differ between the two scenarios, but the differences are not as large or as important. Common projections are projections that are present in both scenarios, either because the experts agreed on one projection or because both of the two selected clusters contained the same projection.

Table 3.1 summarizes all descriptors and projections for both scenarios. The shaded rows indicate those projections that differ between the two scenarios.

Table 3.1. Comparison of Projections in the Two Scenarios

DESCRIPTOR

THE GREAT RESET

SLOWING BUT GROWING

Demography

Total population

1.44 billion (annual growth of 0.34%)

1.39 billion (annual growth of 0.18%)

Geographic distribution of population

41% of the population lives in the eastern region.

41% of the population lives in the eastern region.

Urbanization

70% of the population lives in urban areas.

70% of the population lives in urban areas.

Average commute distance

Has increased slightly

Has increased significantly

Household type

The percentage of the population living in family households has decreased slightly.

The percentage of the population living in family households has increased slightly.

Economy

Economic growth

6-7% average annual growth

4-5% average annual growth

Share of the economy in the eastern region

50% in 2030

43% in 2030 (similar to current)

Income distribution

Income inequality continued to increase (followed by a decline after 2025).

Income inequality continued to increase

(through 2030).

Labor-force participation

80% of the adult population

76% of the adult population

Domestic vehicle production

120 total vehicles per CNY 100 million in GDP (same as current)

120 total vehicles per CNY 100 million in GDP (same as current)

Percentage of GDP spent on transportation infrastructure

4% (same as current)

2%

Energy

Oil price

USD 150 per barrel (Brent crude, in 2014 U.S. dollars)

USD 100 per barrel (Brent crude,

in 2014 U.S. dollars)

Oil consumption

60% of oil consumed is imported

70% of oil consumed is imported

Introduction of effective GHG emission-reduction systems

National carbon market in place by 2020

National carbon market in place by

2020

Adoption of electric and hybrid passenger cars

30% of the total fleet is electric and hybrid passenger vehicles in 2030

20% of the total fleet is electric and hybrid passenger vehicles in 2030

Adoption of E-2Ws

10% annual increase until 2030

2% annual increase until 2030

DESCRIPTOR

THE GREAT RESET

SLOWING BUT GROWING

Transportation supply and constraints

Constraints on driving

Have been introduced also in second-and third-tier cities

Have barely changed; no further constraints

Constraints on vehicle ownership

Have been introduced also in second-and third-tier cities

Have barely changed; no further constraints

Convenience of public transit a

Has increased significantly; customized transit systems for different tiers of cities

Has increased strongly, but mainly for tier 1 cities

Convenience of interurban rail

Strong growth

Moderate growth

Demand for domestic air travel

Strong growth

Moderate growth

Parking management in urban areas

Parking has remained a major issue

The parking situation has slightly improved

Convenience of taxis and car-sharing

Black taxis b have been legalized, and car-sharing systems have been introduced slowly

Black taxis have been legalized, and car-sharing systems have been introduced slowly

Infrastructure for non-motorized transportation (i.e., walking and bicycling)

Has increased significantly

Has increased only slightly

 
Found a mistake? Please highlight the word and press Shift + Enter  
< Prev   CONTENTS   Next >

Related topics