A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence: Achieving Economic Sustainability in CESEE Countries - A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence: Achieving Economic Sustainability in CESEE Countrie -

Preface I Framing the Discussion on Balanced Growth in Europe The necessity of sustainable growth and continued income convergence in Europe INTRODUCTION WHY IS BALANCED GROWTH AN IMPORTANT ISSUE?CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUSTAINABLE GROWTH MODEL IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON INCOME CONVERGENCE CONCLUSION NOTES REFERENCES Changes in banking in the run-up to the crisis INTRODUCTION LACK OF RESTRAINT FROM REGULATION, SUPERVISION AND MARKET DISCIPLINE PUBLIC REACTION TO THE CRISIS AND NEED TO REBUILD TRUST REGULATORY RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS Proposal for Mandatory Separation and Rationale for Separation Additional Separation Conditional on the Recovery and Resolution Plan Facilitating the Use of Bail-in Instruments A Review of Capital Requirements on Trading Assets and Real Estate-related Instruments COMPARISON WITH OTHER STRUCTURAL PROPOSALS THE ROLE OF BANKS IN FINANCING THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY NOTES REFERENCES Restarting growth in Europe after the Great Recession: CEE versus other countries INTRODUCTION Сonvergence and growth INFLATION AND COST COMPETITIVENESS IMBALANCES: ExTERNAL, PUBLIC AND private UNEMPLOYMENT AND STRUCTURAL ASPECTS THE FUTURE: OPENNESS AND INTEGRATION CONCLUSIONS NOTES REFERENCES The European debt crisis and a stable design of EMU II Stop and Go of Capital Flows and Deleveraging Managing stop-go capital flows in Asian emerging markets: lessons for the CESEE economies INTRODUCTION CAPITAL FLOWS AND REALITY RISKS AND POLICY SPACE LESSONS REFERENCES CESEE banks deleveraging or rebalancing? Lessons from the EIB bank lending survey INTRODUCTION MAIN FACTS: BANKING IN CESEE A UNIQUE BANK LENDING SURVEY IN THE CESEE REGION: BACKGROUND MAIN RESULTS FROM THE GROUP-LEVEL SECTION OF THE SURVEY MAIN RESULTS FROM THE SUBSIDIARY level section of the survey A SIMPLE STATISTICAL EXERCISE USING THE RESULTS OF THE BANK LENDING SURVEY CONCLUDING REMARKS NOTES BIBLIOGRAPHY Managing capital flows in a globalized economy INTRODUCTION LIvING IN A WORLD OF FREE AND TURBULENT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FLOWS AND CHANGES IN CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FREE CAPITAL MOvEMENT AND CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES CAN COUNTRIES INFLUENCE THE SIZE AND DIRECTION OF PRIvATE CAPITAL FLOWS?CAPITAL MOBILITY AND MONETARY POLICY CONCLUSIONS NOTES REFERENCES III Growth Strategies of EU Neighbouring Countries: Russia and Turkey Russia in 2012: the challenge of reforming the economy without a political reform Sustaining growth in emerging markets: the role of structural and monetary policies INTRODUCTION ASSESSING THE GROWTH EXPERIENCE OF TURKEY Before the 2001 Crisis After the 2001 Crisis Monetary Policy Stance after the Collapse of Lehman Brothers: An Immediate Response to the Crisis Soft Landing after 2010 THE TURKISH ECONOMY vERSUS CESEE ECONOMIES CONCLUSION NOTES REFERENCES IV Small-country Experiences in Economic Adjustment Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment of CESEE countries during the crisis INTRODUCTION AND MOTIvATION LITERATURE REVIEW Theoretical Background: Income versus Business Cycle Convergence Business Cycle Convergence between the CESEE Region and the Euro Area DATA AND METHODS Dataset Calculation of Business Cycles Synchronization Measures EMPIRICAL RESULTS Cyclical Heterogeneity within the CESEE Region Decoupling of CESEE Countries from the Euro Area Cycle?Implications for the Catching-up Process CONCLUSIONS NOTES REFERENCES South-Eastern Europe: impacts from the crisis, vulnerabilities and adjustments INTRODUCTION INITIAL CONDITIONS IN THE SEE-6 BEFORE THE CRISIS THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON THE SEE-6 REGION Vulnerability Analysis of the SEE-6 Countries before and during the Crisis The Macedonian Economy during the Crisis Period LOOKING AHEAD: CHALLENGES FOR THE SEE-6 COUNTRIES CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES Economic adjustment in the Baltic countries INTRODUCTION MAIN DEvELOPMENTS IN THE BALTICS DURING 2000-2012 Expansion (2000-2007)Recession (2007-2008 and 2008-2009)Recovery (2009-2010)COMPARISON OF THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE BALTIC ECONOMIES WITH IRELAND, GREECE AND PORTUGAL THE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF FAST VERSUS GRADUAL ADJUSTMENT CONCLUDING REMARKS NOTES REFERENCES V A Practitioner’s View Basel III from a practitioner’s perspective HISTORICAL CIRCUMSTANCES Policy Reaction BANK REACTION IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CORPORATE CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES CONCLUSION BIBLIOGRAPHY Banks’ challenges in Central and Eastern Europe Banking in CEE: less growth, more balance CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE AND THE ECONOMIC ENvIRONMENT Impact on CEE from EMU Bank Deleveraging is a Manageable Drag CEE BANKING SECTOR MAJOR CHALLENGES FACED BY BANKS Cross-border Regulatory Challenges The role of non-bank financial intermediaries Basel III and Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV)SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS NOTES REFERENCES