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Public Opinion, Transatlantic Relations and the Use of Force

I The Transatlantic Order, Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force IntroductionThe transatlantic dimensionA transatlantic gap?Why the gap?The use of military forcePublic opinion, democracy and transatlantic relationsPublic opinion and the transatlantic orderShortcomings of the debateThe data we useHow the book is organizedTheoretical Issues and Empirical ProblemsPublic opinion and the use of forceSocio-demographic characteristicsPolitical orientations and foreign policy predispositionsSituational variablesPutting all pieces togetherII Beliefs, Situations and Time in WarPartners Apart? The Foreign Policy Attitudes of the American and European PublicsPerceptions of threatsFriends and foes: anti-Americanism and the sense of Atlantic communityAtlanticism and multilateralismAmerican leadership contestedCloser or more independent partnership with US?NATO still essential?Measuring AtlanticismAttitudes toward the use of forceThe acceptance of military force in generalToward a typology of attitudes on the use of forceThe use of military force in hypothetical casesMilitary force in specific casesSome conclusionsThe Nature and Structure of the Transatlantic DivideThe Left-Right divide on international issuesLeft-Right and threat perceptionsLeft-Right and the sense of an Atlantic communityLeft-Right and attitudes on the use of forcePolitical implications for Transatlantic relations and coalition formationDifferences across the aisle in the United StatesPutting the pieces together - the sources of differences in support for the use of forceThe operationalization of the modelResults of the analysisSome interim conclusions and political implications of the findingsFinal remarksTime and War: Public Opinion on Kosovo, Terrorism, Afghanistan and Iraq in a Transatlantic PerspectiveKosovo: war without bloodshed?The role of public opinion in the Kosovo conflictSupport of the air strikes and other military actions: a comparative lookEvolution of attitudes in the United StatesEvolution of attitudes in Europe'Send the Marines?'Some conclusions and a remaining puzzleTerrorism and Afghanistan: a new form of war?The terrorist attacks of 9/11 and beyond: available dataThreat perceptionsEffectiveness of military action? Military action appropriate?Support for the 'war on terrorism' by the United StatesInternational support of the military action of the United States against the Taliban in AfghanistanSupport for participation of one's country in the military action by the United StatesThe geography of supportThe evolution of support for military action over timeSome interim conclusionsThe war in Afghanistan, phase twoInternational and American public opinion comparedThe evolution of attitudes in the USEvolution of attitudes in EuropeThe need to differentiateConcluding observationsIraq: The great divideThe evolution of support over timeThe conditions of support: a Transatlantic perspectiveThe conditions of going to war before March 2003. The importance of legitimacyThe aftermath. Disenchantment with the outcomes of the interventionThe prospect of casualtiesSome conclusionsSupport for the Use of Force: Situational and Contextual FactorsModeling the factors shaping the support for the use of military forceThe impact of question wording: turning a liability into an assetAvailable poll dataInitial outcomes: the geography of supportThe coding of the dataA first inspection: bivariate relationshipsThe role of military casualtiesA multivariate analysisA second look: situational and predispositions comparedIII The Future of the Transatlantic RelationshipConclusions: An Agenda for Future CrisesGrowing and changing interest in the role of public opinionSome methodological conclusionsThe impact of timeA Transatlantic gap?Political implications: the chances of restoring a transatlantic consensusThe task of political leadersWhere are the allies?Concluding remarks

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