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Developing the Approach

The Chief of Police was under huge pressure to act, and act quickly. However, knowing that a knee-jerk crackdown would not achieve sustainable long-term results, the Chief instead decided that a rapid risk assessment should be used to identify the root causes of the problem. Luckily, the Police Department had an enterprise risk manager who was able to help out.

The ERM manager was called in to a meeting with the Chief of Police, the criminal operations officer, and the head of strategic planning, and was set the following two tasks:

1. Identify the techniques that will be the most effective in identifying the root cause of the current surge in homicides in Oil City.

2. Choose the best approach, and justify selection of that approach.

Understanding the Issues

After presenting the recommendations and rationale to the Chief of Police, the ERM manager was given approval to start developing the cause and effect diagram. In order to make this as robust as possible, the ERM manager called together a brainstorming group from across the operations, intelligence, community support, and leadership streams of the department. The first challenge they faced was to develop the problem definition.

As a result of the ERM manager's suggestion, the group developed the (partial) force field analysis diagram shown in Exhibit 21.12.

Once the team had completed the force field analysis, they considered each of the restraining forces in turn using the five whys approach. Exhibit 21.13 outlines the results for two of these restraining factors.

It is important to note that there were a number of equally important answers to the third "why" question. In order to capture each of these separate answers, the analysis team would have followed each of the pathways to its logical conclusion by repeating the five whys process for each strand.

Exhibit 21.12 Force Field Analysis

Driving Forces →

Status Quo

← Restraining Forces

Significant number of skilled social assistance agencies available to assist police Ability to implement new liquor licensing regimes, placing limits on single bottle "big beer" sales Police resources able to be redeployed into problem communities from other areas

Existing legislation provides police powers to search, arrest for concealed weapons

Well-structured strategic management and initiative management capability within the Police Department

Levels of reported violent crime double the 10-year moving average

Social assistance agencies compete with each other for funding and donations, which are often based on occupancy / throughput Ready community access to high-strength, low-cost alcohol (including single bottle "big beers")

Cultural acceptance of

individuals carrying edged weapons among homeless, disadvantaged communities

Reluctance of prosecutors to pursue charges for carrying concealed weapon Reluctance of some police leaders to commit resources to crime prevention if there are no arrests to be made No coherent organizational coordination of crime prevention or violence reduction initiatives

Exhibit 21.13 Five Whys Analysis

Restraining Factor

Cultural acceptance of

individuals carrying edged weapons among homeless, disadvantaged communities

Reluctance of prosecutors to pursue charges for carrying concealed weapon

Why #1

Homeless, disadvantaged community members feel that they need to protect themselves from harm

Prosecutors view the charges to be a lot of work for minimal punishment to the offender

Why #2

Members of the homeless and disadvantaged communities feel that police don't protect them to the same level as other communities

Prosecutors often have to return to the arresting police officer repeatedly for additional information that has not been provided in the original charge report

Why #3

Previous police interaction with victims from the homeless, disadvantaged communities has often been adversarial and not resulting in positive outcomes for the reporters/victims

Police officers use a generic charge report to file the arrest report, and it does not specify all the information necessary to sustain a concealed weapons charge

Why #4

Police members are not

trained to recognize or relate to the specific physical, mental, and addiction issues more common among members of these communities that may impact how they are able to report crimes to the police

The Police Department records management system has not been configured with a specific concealed weapons charge report format

Why #5

Police officers are trained to respond to a call, deal with the issue as quickly as possible, and then move on to the next call

The Police Department IT group has never been asked to create a specific concealed weapons charge report with mandatory data fields

Once the analysis team had completed their force field and five whys analysis, they were able to develop a comprehensive cause and effect diagram. Exhibit 21.14 includes two or three examples for each subsource of risk; however, in practice the total diagram would have been far larger.

The completed cause and effect diagram provided a touch point for the remainder of the risk management and strategy development processes. It provided the analysis team with detailed information on the root causes of the risks, including

Case Study Cause and Effect Diagram

Exhibit 21.14 Case Study Cause and Effect Diagram

Reprinted with permission from RIMS Strategic Risk Management Implementation Guide. Copyright 2012 Risk and Insurance Management Society, Inc. All rights reserved.

the many behaviorally based risks they saw in their environment, as well as providing several logical starting points for developing risk treatments.

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